My take on health care reform

I still get a fair amount of emails talking about the upcoming changes to health insurance so here's my take:

*I believe there will be significant changes to health care five years from now. Those changes, however, will not be a gov't run single payer system. How do I know that? Even Hillary isn't dumb enough to have a gov't run platform. Her latest plan, in her words, is "reality based" - meaning she knows it's impossible to get a bill passed for a Canadian-like or UK-like system. As it stands right now it looks like Hillary vs Giuliani and although I'm a Republican I think Hillary would clean his clock. I'm a realist. If Hillary gets in she will not rest until health care reform happens.

*Most likely we'll have employer-mandated coverage - meaning employers will simply have to cover all of their employees if they have a business over a certain size.

*Individual coverage will be available on the market like it is now, but will be guaranteed issue and costs will be offset by the gov't and probably a 5% tax increase.

*Commissions will likely fall - probably the 5% to 10% range which will basically put most independent agents out of business. That being said, it certainly won't put top health agents under. They will simply ramp up business and focus more on cross-selling life and DI. It will still be possible to make six figs selling individual health.

My take? If you're struggling now as an independent most likely you'll be out of business 5+ years from now. Here's my time line:

2008 - elections
2009 - new prez sworn in. Doesn't matter who - all off them want health reform
2010 - legislation introduced and passed for health care reform
2011 - health insurance companies submit their rates for GI plans - implementation starts
2012 - new changes fully implemented

Again, I see it in five years from concept to implementation. Whether or not I'm correct, I don't think it would be a fantastic long-term plan to ignore the potential changes. If I were you, I'd be lining up a plan B now.

This is what I'm doing. I'm going for a strong community presence and basically making a lot of money over the next several years. If changes happen the way I think they will, I'd like to already be established in the community.

The worst case scenario is I'm dead wrong, years from now we have a single payer gov't run system and we're all basically out of business selling health insurance. However, I wouldn't mind having a lot of money floating around in the bank if that happens and not in a position where I need immediate pay.